How to inject more reality into gamblers’ overestimation of their chances of winning? One simple tool is feedback.
If the Democrats get close to retaking the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections, the odds of impeachment are high. But the Senate remains problematic.
Passionate Socceroos fans will be dreaming big about Australia winning the 2018 World Cup in Russia - but probability models reveal interesting data about the actual chances of a shock success.
We are often presented with surveys that claim to show how we all think on a certain subject. But what sample size is big enough to make the findings credible?